Future sight
September 8th 2010 10:20
The Atlantic has a feature this month about the problems with Iran’s nuclear program. The writer had a very high level of access to regional leaders, ministers, analysts, and even President Obama’s staff, relating their uncensored predictions and opinions. Like many discussions of the Persian bomb, he muses on whether such a state of affairs might be manageable, or at least inevitable. He has, to put it succinctly, a different definition of “manageable” than me. Suggesting that Iran would “only” become a political rival, in the manner the Soviet Union was, is an incredible thing to say with a straight face, given that many people who are alive now remember the Cold War and the way it shaped society, culture, and politics for almost fifty years.
Consider, for example, the fact that in many Muslim countries, significant elements of the population are dissatisfied with what they perceive as the government’s lack of action on pressing issues like Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians and America’s trampling of Islamic interests. This is blowback, if you like, from those same governments’ past use of state-controlled media to focus attention on relatively distant hot-button issues relating to the clash of civilizations as a distraction from domestic problems.
In the event of an Iranian bomb, those regimes will finally realize how they opened Pandora’s box. Such a development would allow Iran to position itself as the only Islamic nation that was able to stand against the Crusader-Zionist alliance – more in line with the interests of the so-called Muslim street than its current leaders. It would be of no consequence that Iran lacked the conventional military power to tackle neighboring regimes, or even the nuclear arsenal to carry out an exchange with Israel or the United States. Symbols matter, and such a symbol might inspire Iranian-aligned opposition movements with broad popular support across the Islamic world.
Like the rallying of communist movements with their eyes fixed on the Soviet banner during the 1950s and 1960s, this would pose an incredible threat to American interests. A hypothetical Islamic revolution in Morocco could unleash waves of terrorism on Spain and Portugal. One in Indonesia could disrupt crucial Asian sea lanes, which in the long term might force the U.S. Navy to surrender the East Asian theater to China. One in Saudi Arabia could impose an embargo of the type Jimmy Carter faced and send the global economy back to the Dark Ages.
An Iranian nuclear bomb might be manageable, says the Atlantic. Manageable? Compared to what?
Consider, for example, the fact that in many Muslim countries, significant elements of the population are dissatisfied with what they perceive as the government’s lack of action on pressing issues like Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians and America’s trampling of Islamic interests. This is blowback, if you like, from those same governments’ past use of state-controlled media to focus attention on relatively distant hot-button issues relating to the clash of civilizations as a distraction from domestic problems.
In the event of an Iranian bomb, those regimes will finally realize how they opened Pandora’s box. Such a development would allow Iran to position itself as the only Islamic nation that was able to stand against the Crusader-Zionist alliance – more in line with the interests of the so-called Muslim street than its current leaders. It would be of no consequence that Iran lacked the conventional military power to tackle neighboring regimes, or even the nuclear arsenal to carry out an exchange with Israel or the United States. Symbols matter, and such a symbol might inspire Iranian-aligned opposition movements with broad popular support across the Islamic world.
Like the rallying of communist movements with their eyes fixed on the Soviet banner during the 1950s and 1960s, this would pose an incredible threat to American interests. A hypothetical Islamic revolution in Morocco could unleash waves of terrorism on Spain and Portugal. One in Indonesia could disrupt crucial Asian sea lanes, which in the long term might force the U.S. Navy to surrender the East Asian theater to China. One in Saudi Arabia could impose an embargo of the type Jimmy Carter faced and send the global economy back to the Dark Ages.
An Iranian nuclear bomb might be manageable, says the Atlantic. Manageable? Compared to what?
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